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SURVIVOR PHOENIX
March 9, 2005
This is a summary of the evidence for E4 of Survivor Palau, based on available spoilers, previews, vidcaps and discussions across the boards.
If we have it all wrong or have missed something along the way, please let us know.
Content will be updated as new information comes in to support or to contradict what we have posted.
E4 previews
E4 vidcaps
Read more...
REWARD CHALLENGE: Better Built Outhouse
Looks like we are back on track with the Challenge Board order of challenges. This is supported as well by Mersaydeez's claim that there is a latrine building challenge, in which Ibrehem distinguishes himself by holding nails.
Time for product placement for Survivor sponsor "Home Depot." Because, as we all know, any castaways stranded with no help at all on a island would immediately proceed to build an outhouse, were tools suddenly to materialize.
The web site teasers tells us that the tribes are required to pick a tribal representative each for the Reward Challenge. That person will be making decisions which will affect the tribe. Of course, paranoia sets in, since as Coby points out, "what if the person goes, doesn't come back?" The vidcaps of the challenges do not support the possibility of tribal switches, so if any tribe reshuffling is offered to the reps, it will likley be turned down. More likely, the choices involve the RC only. Expect the decision-making about reps to affect tribal dynamics long-term more than the actual decisions made by these reps.
According to the teasers, "spirits are high within a tribe when they win a Challenge and an extraordinary Reward." In All-Stars, all tribes kept what they built (and wasn't washed out by the sea.) The winning tribe also got blankets and mats. biancaxxx at MeSS tells us that the Reward is a first for Survivor (wave to Probst) and that it is bigger than blankets. She also hints, cryptically, that there's more "No Help of Any Kind" coming at us. So, what is extraordinary, a first on Survivor, bigger than a blanket and likely tied in to the challenge sponsor? 
The previews show the Koror tribe lined up on the beach reacting to something at sea. There has been some heavy debate across the boards as to whether this is a happy celebration or simply a shocked response at the reward. Taking all the available information, we tend to agree with clemsonbeav at Blows that the previously RC-winless Koror is a better fit as the winner of this RC, making the promo sequence one of shock at the reward.
  
  
  
In All-Stars, tribes with a numbers advantage were required to sit out players in a similar challenge, so Koror will likely sit out 3 of its players here. We have no caps of the challenge to help us determine who they will be, but if we eliminate those sitting out the IC, we know it has to be 3 of the following: Caryn, Coby, Gregg, Janu, Jenn and Tom.
Tom and Gregg will probably participate, while Janu and Caryn are a good bet to sit out the RC, since they both take part in the IC. That leaves the last remaining spot between Coby and Jenn. Since Koror will likely not wish to sit out Coby from an IC, we think he is likely the third one sitting out the RC.
RC Sit-Outs: Caryn, Coby and Janu
RC Winner: Koror
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE: Sumo at Sea
Tribes engage in one-on-one combat against each other atop a platform over water. Hard to determine exactly what the rules are, but we suspect that the last player remaining on the platform is declared the winner of the round.
As ThumpusMagnus points out at MeSS, the challenge cannot be first to 3 wins, since we see at least 6 rounds, 7 if you believe that Ibrehem without the buff on his head is a different round than the one where he is wearing the buff. Also, because it does appear that we see 2 rounds between Gregg and Ibrehem, it's likely a first tribe to 5 or first tribe to 6.
Coby - James: outcome inconclusive
Jenn - Stephenie: Stephenie win Ulong 1 - Koror 0
Tom - BobbyJon: probable Tom win Ulong 1 - Koror 1
Caryn - Angie: Angie win Ulong 2 - Koror 1
Gregg - Ibrehem 1st round: outcome inconclusive "Olé!"
Gregg - Ibrehem 2nd round: outcome inconclusive
Janu - Kim: outcome inconclusive
  
  
 
 
 
  
 
The web preview gives us a distinct impression that Ulong is doing well and winning. Between the cheering shots, the dunking of Jenn and Probst's comment about Angie, we are led to believe that Ulong is dominating.
But we suddenly have a series of black-and-white shots of Ulong players at different times and places. Warrior points out at MeSS that at least one of these shots, the one of Ibrehem holding the Ulong flag, is recycled (and flipped) from E3. These shots could indicate that Ulong continues its downward spiral.
  
The three sit-out players can be seen in this vidcap.
RC Sit-Outs: Katie, Ian and Willard
IC Winner: Koror
BOOT
We get a hint in the teasers that a divided tribe will be discussing voting off an unlucky player. As Brownroach points out at Blows, this probably applies to Koror, especially in light of Coby's statement that 9 people is too many. On the very off chance that Ulong manages to notch a win this week, the Koror players who seem most at risk at this point in the game are Caryn and Willard, as pointed out by Corvis in his weekly confessional analysis. In addition, Janu, if she has not fully recovered, and whoever creates waves during the selection of the tribal reps, might be considered as boot candidates.
The logical conclusion if Koror wins yet another IC is that the distaff half of the Ulong romance will be getting her torch snuffed. Indeed, Kim has no strong alliance with the remaining members of her tribe, and was only saved last week by Jeff's request that he be voted out of the game. If Mersaydeez's information holds up, this week should see Kim exiting the game.
Of course, we could be completely off base.
Check back. Or not.
At any rate, you know who will post it in due time.
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