S21
SURVIVOR
NICARAGUA
PREMIERES
Fall 2010
New day:
Wednesdays
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Have you heard any show news on the vine?
Know any of the players?
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Confidentiality guaranteed.
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Good storytelling, good television will last, doesn't matter if it's a comedy, a drama or reality.
-- Mark Burnett |
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SURVIVOR PHOENIX
January 23, 2005
 UPDATED: February 16, 2005
It is here that 20 new castaways will be abandoned. From the beginning, the game will be changed in a dramatic way. Everything the Survivors have come to expect will be wiped out in the first 10 minutes. - Survivor Palau preview
This is a summary of the evidence for E1 of Survivor Palau, based on available spoilers, previews, vidcaps and discussions across the boards.
If we have it all wrong or have missed something along the way, please let us know.
Content will be updated as new information comes in to support or to contradict what we have posted.
E1 previews
E1 vidcaps
Read more...
AND WE'RE OFF!
"They're given very little instruction about what to do, and some of them are genuinely lost." - Mark Burnett
Showing that no one ever learns from the experience of others, the Palau players are caught off-guard and get thrown into the game prematurely and unexpedectedly. The E! promo included some odd footage of a submerged platform leading away from a beach. Were the players initially brought to the beach then led away to the waiting row boat? Hard to tell, but we'll include the caps here for now.
 
As stated in a recent interviews, Jeff Probst gives them almost no instruction and leaves the players to fend for themselves.
The CBS Press Release appears to confirm the initial start to the game.
As the castaways row one large boat through the waters surrounding Palau, host Jeff Probst points them towards their new beach and indicates there will be two machetes and a map to water waiting for them. In addition, he indicates there will be two immunity necklaces for the first man and the first woman to reach the shore.
On to the row boat, search for a marker, spot a green flag, go ashore.
  
  
From the hard fought race to shore between Jolanda and Jenn, it appears that Jolanda wins the women's immunity necklace. Sucks poster quartzeye speculated early on that Ian and Jolanda were team captains based on a split screen shot in one of the promos. This was confirmed by callmecrazee when she hinted that Ian and Jolanda were shown hugging in a TV Guide picture because they have something in common, making the dolphin trainer the winner of the men's immunity necklace. Is it possible that the promos were hinting at it all along?
  
Mingle, mingle, mingle... yack, yack, yack... wonder what is going on.
Gather coconuts, gather palm fronds, build a shelter.
  
  
No help. Yeah, right.
Are those water canteens we spot?
Are those machetes we spot?
Is that a map to water we spot?
  
WALK WITH JEFF
Is that Probst we spot? Follow the leader or lambs to the slaughter?
  
The "Walk with Jeff'' is reportedly a precursor to a twist in the game, the "biggest twist ever!" (Or was the biggest twist ever Jeff pointing them in the general direction of their camp and leaving with no further directions? Hard to keep track!)
Players appear to be talking to each other, so this takes place after the game has started. We see cut off clothes, so clearly not when the players are first "abandoned." Clothes appear to be dry, so probably the day after the marooning, given the time it would have taken to find camp, bond, gather food and build shelter in the first day. Considering that we see both Coby and Ashlee, neither one wearing a buff, emerging from a completed shelter, it is highly probable that Jeff does not appear until Day 2, though we wouldn't rule out an early Day 3 appearance.
The Canadian version of TV Guide has an article which states that the tribes compete on Day 2.
FIRST ELIMINATIONS
The two early casualties aren't flukes - Mark Burnett Variety
Hey! Note the military vocabulary again. Casualties?
Mark Burnett clearly subscribes to the school of "it depends what the meaning of the word 'is' is," since he tells us that "two people don't make it to the first challenge." We will see a competition, though NOT a challenge. The competition should yield two winners who will begin a pick'em style chain selection for members of each squad... oops, make that 'each tribe'. The last two players remaining will be cut at this point ... oops, make that 'eliminated'.
The CBS Press Release for this episode has shed some light into the timeline of this competition. The competition is actually the race to shore described above, but the pick'em doesn't take place until after Probst arrives at camp, either on Day 2 or the start of Day 3.
In one of the cruelest twists to the game, 2 of the players will never get a chance to play the game. Why bother introducing 20 players, only to eliminate 2 right off the bat? Well, this is a military themed show after all. The players got the boot camp experience of making it on their own, giving them a chance to assess each other's strengths and weaknesses. Time to get rid of the dead weight.
In reality, whether the players are aware before the pick'em begins that the last 2 will not become part of the tribe is uncertain. Equally uncertain is whether the players eliminated in this fashion are out of the game permanently.
We expect Wanda to be one of the players cut. A true Survivor fan, not one of the recruited players, this is likely devastating to her.
 
The second player cut was long rumored to be a woman, but we no longer believe that to be the case. Given what we believe to be the tribal breakdown (see below), we think that Jonathan is the most likely person to be eliminated at this point.
Color us surprised.
 
NOTE: In a previous version of this Summary, we had noted that Katie could probably be ruled out as a candidate for one of the elimination slots, as she was "reported to have achieved her stated goal of weight loss." The statement was only intended for use within the parameters of the pick'em; it did not imply any long-term longevity in the game. While there are other factors suggesting that Katie survives the first few episodes, there is nothing conclusive about the evidence.
Don't expect the players leaving at this point to be all that happy about it. Not that we blame them. To get thisclose to the action, only to be sent home without even the chance to wear a buff! Whether their disappointment gets any play on a show expected to last only 42 minutes, not counting commercials, remains to be seen. If so, expect an especially heartfelt speech from Jonathan.
Still, Mark Burnett promises that "it's very emotional."
TRIBE BUFFS, COLORS AND NAMES
Buffs surfaced in late December, courtesy of port vila presse and Survivor Phoenix. All feature a camouflage pattern and seargent stripes and come in Green, Blue and Brown.
In a previous version of this summary, we included the possibility of a third tribe. We no longer believe that to be the case. Two tribes will be formed as the result of the pick'em: Koror (brown) and Ulong (blue), as confirmed by the various vidcaps and pictures of players in their respective buffs. The tribe names were spoiled initially by Survivor Maps.
The following tribal alignments come primarily from vidcap evidence of the E! Preview
KOROR - brown tribe:
Caryn - Coby - Gregg - Ian - Janu - Jennifer - Katie - Tom - Willard
 
In an earlier version of this summary, I referenced a post which pointed out that Coby, Katie and Stephenie seemed close. That post has been labeled now as spec, based on other information. There is no evidence to qualify the relationship as close at this point.
ULONG - blue tribe:
Angie - Ashlee - Bobby Jon - Ibrehem - James - Jeff - Jolanda - Kim - Stephenie
 
MISCELLANEOUS
Tribe Mascots
MickeyKnocks uncovered a Geocities site (no longer accessible) which had various pictures posted, including the posters of shark and ray drawings. As noted by TDT, the drawing of the ray matched the one painted on an oar shown in the preview for Survivor Palau. So, the shark and the ray are likely the tribe mascots; they should appear on the tribal flags and/or artifacts.
  
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Most likely a "Gauntlet"-style obstacle course, to keep with the military theme.
Sucks poster biancaxxx tells us that the tires shown in these pictures, courtesy of Fish 'n Fins and Survivor Maps, will be used in the first episode.
 
Jeff Probst indicated, in a recent conference call with various media outlets, that many challenges this season will take place in the water. The first challenge doesn't appear to disappoint, as we see both a trek jungle and a water crossing. We also know that a portion of it will consist of navigating a under a wooden structure, as shown in the picture from the TV Guide article.
  
There are also many shots in the promo footage which could be taken from this challenge, in particular the shots of Angie and Kim which show swinging ropes (and sacks) in the background. Click on the thumbnails for the animation.
 
The footage from the initial web promo included footage mostly from the players on Koror, including confessionals, suggesting that perhaps that tribe would be heading to TC.
The vidcaps from the E Preview show Probst following the Koror tribe. Since he usually sticks with the leaders, it is probable that Koror is leading at this point in the race. While it isn't clear when in the race this sequence occurs, we will go with a Koror win for now.
As pointed out by TDT, a second promo on E! showed a long shot of the Koror canoe, into which Ian is placing a wooden idol. Sure looks like an Immunity Idol. Just more support for the Koror winning Immunity.
BOOT
We expect that the individual immunities won by Jolanda and Ian were specific to the pick'em and that neither will be immune at this tribal challenge.
Going on the assumption that the boot will be given some face time and perhaps a confessional or two, Angie, BobbyJon, Ibrehem, James, Jolanda and Stephenie should be vulnerable. There are some indications that Stephenie sticks around for a while, so that would eliminate her from contention.
In the recent conference call, Jeff Probst was quoted as saying "The message that they (the players) are going to find out is if you vote out your strong simply because they are strong…go ahead…but odds are, you will back at Tribal Council." While it doesn't seem logical that the strongest would be booted from the start, that may just be what happens.
It isn't clear at this point whether the players will stick together by gender, but if the title for next week's episode is any indication, romance might prevail over gender wars this season. The previews for Ibrehem have centered around the flirting theme, so he should remain for a while.
Given the 5-4 female/male gender on UIong, we might possibly see a woman eliminated in the first episode. And if the strong are indeed removed first, that would make Jolanda our leading contender for the boot, a selection which callmecrazee at Sucks suggests is the correct one.
Then again, Probst has suggested that Angie's difficulty might be fitting in with her tribemates. If she seems too much of a loner, she could well be the first to leave.
Of course, we could be completely off base.
Check back. Or not.
Of course, you know who will post it in due time.
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